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Short-term Expected Development of Urea Granules

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Short-term Expected Development of Urea Granules

2023-03-24




Short-term Expected Development of Urea Granules


More new urea plants will be put into operation in the future, which will put obvious pressure on the supply of urea according to our forecast for the demand for urea for vehicles, it is estimated that the demand for urea solution for vehicles will drive the consumption of urea to ¥1.53 million tons in 2022 , ¥1.84 million tons in 2023, ¥2.21 million tons in 2024, and ¥2.65 million tons in 2025. In terms of export, due to the inversion of international prices and the restriction of legal inspection policies, the export volume of urea may continue to remain at a very low level in the future, and the overall export volume in 2023 may be less than ¥2.5 million tons. On the whole, there will be more new urea plants put into operation in the future, which will put obvious pressure on urea supply. On the demand side, be vigilant that after May, the demand for agricultural and industrial fertilizers will not be as high as the growth of domestic urea supply, and the center of gravity of urea futures prices will likely move further down.

 
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